Guy Fawkes Day Romanian Style

What has Guy Fawkes got to do with Romania? Nothing directly, except next Sunday 2nd November will be the first round of the presidential elections.

I cannot let the occasion pass without making some comments as to whether or not the whole process has affected business over the last few weeks. Now some people would say it has not effected businesses at all; if you speak to other businessmen they would probably answer in a different way.  Having experienced all Romanian presidential elections over the last 24 years, my view is that this may be a defining moment which will shape the future of Romania for the next generation.

Like all foreigners unless you are registered as a Romanian citizen you do not have the right to vote.  I cannot vote but I can make observations which are not blighted by political bigotry.

Why is this vote so important? Firstly this is the first election of the „new breed” of politicians. True, the old parties are there with the various „barons”.  But the barons are losing control.  Whether by accident or design, and I lean to the position of design, the DNA has arrested more political and business figures in the last three months than in probably the last three years.  If Mr. Ponta wins, will he be able to control the DNA?

Secondly, there is more public scrutiny of the election process itself. The younger generation are becoming a larger percentage of the voting population.  They see things in a different way from their parents.  They cannot be bought with money and bread.  They require freedom from corruption and the „barons”.  The politically active may appear to vote along old lines but it must be remembered that the majority of voters are not politically active.

Thirdly, more Romanians are returning from abroad and they are tired of the bad press that Romania has. They want to build a brave new world where they can live and work with pride.  They want to have pride in themselves and in their country.  They want reality not slogans.  Romania was described to me the other day as the bright example of what can happen in the Balkans.  All other countries are mired in recession and depression.  Romania is and has the power to rise above all of this.  Romania is the country which other countries in the region aspire to be like.  Romanians want to be proud.

The choice will probably come down to the Prime Minister, Victor Ponta and the man who was instrumental in the breakup of the coalition between the Liberals and the PSD, Klaus Johanis. I do not doubt the sincerity of both men and only hope that they will be allowed to implement the policies to which they espouse.  Will they be able to cut free from the elements in their respective parties who have put them where they are today? In reality none of the other candidates will receive sufficient votes to take part in the second round.

The election campaign up to now has been a campaign not of policies but rather trying to discredit the other person deemed to be the likely opponent in the second round. One example are the comments made by the Prime Minister, as Prime Minister, about the court case regarding Johannis.  No politician should involve themselves in the judicial process.  If they do, what then is the difference between the Government under Ceausescu and their control and now.  Freedom of Justice and freedom for Justice is very important as this is the basis of the rule of law.  Romania has moved on from pre 1989 times and all politicians should accept it as one day it may be their turn.

Whatever happens, next Sunday will not be the end. I do not expect any one candidate to have more than 50% of the popular vote.  The Prime Minister has said if he receives 37% in the first round he will be happy.  The second round should allow the opposition to unite behind one candidate and then the people will have to make a choice.

In my view after the election there will be a mini boom in Romania for perhaps six to eighteen months. What will happen after that will depend on the World economy and how well the Romanian economy is managed. The real question for Romania is not perhaps who wins but can Romania continue to develop along the lines of democracy or will it start to revert to a more authoritarian regime. If people have their liberty and this is not curtailed then I have hope for Romania both in the short and long term.

Oh, what is the connection with Guy Fawkes? Only the fact that he tried to change the Government of England and Scotland by force. Fortunately that will not happen in Romania if the election is felt to be fair and clean.  Both sides will I am sure bend the rules; not break them.  So we wait to see what happens on 16^th November the second round.

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